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Business & Economy15 september, 2022

Before the tripartite meeting: inflation forecasts

The tripartite meeting between the government, trade unions and employers will begin on September 18 and will last for three days.

Before the tripartite meeting: inflation forecasts

This tripartite meeting is supposed to address the issue of protection of households and businesses affected by inflation and the energy crisis. One of the hottest topics on the agenda will most likely be the salary indexation. This has been discussed for more than a month, and the trade unions intend press the issue hard.

The need for decisive action has already become clear to everyone. Moreover, recently STATEC presented three inflation forecasts: optimistic, neutral and pessimistic.

The optimistic scenario assumes that inflation in 2022 will remain at the 6.4% level, and in 2023 it will fall to 4.4%. This will mean three indexation: one at the start of the year, one in the middle, and a complementary one that’s still being delayed right now.

On the other hand, the pessimistic scenario takes the possible 6.8% inflation in 2022 and 8.5% in 2023 into account. In this scenario, five indexation rounds await Luxembourg: this November, next January and April, another indexation in the third quarter of 2023 and the complementary one.

And finally, a neutral scenario: inflation will remain at the 6.6% level. Therefore, there will be four indexations: in November 2022, March and September 2023, and one transferred from 2022 to 2023.

Before the tripartite meeting: inflation forecasts
Source: STATEC. Inflation forecasts for various possible energy prices

In theory, a positive outcome of the meeting can be achieved if no side vetoes the decisions of the other two. In turn, Xavier Bettel said that it was not in his plans to put spokes in the wheels. “We are not playing against each other,” the prime minister added.

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Author: Danila Pushnoy

Source: Paperjam

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