Planet on the edge: Copernicus report records record humidity and warming oceans in 2024

According to the Global Climate Highlights 2024 report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), last year was an unprecedented year in climate terms, with the Earth entering a zone of sustained exceedance of the +1.5°C threshold relative to pre-industrial levels under the Paris Agreement. This is not an anomaly, but a new climate regime.

Air moisture content in 2024 is +4.9% higher than the 1991-2020 average, surpassing the previous records of 2016 (+3.4%) and 2023 (+3.3%). This is an alarming dynamic: water vapour is a potent greenhouse gas, and while its concentration is not directly related to emissions, it increases rapidly as temperatures rise. One degree of warming = +7% of moisture in the atmosphere.

As C3S Director Carlo Buontempo explains, "We are seeing climate feedback in the overheating regime - warmer air holds more moisture, which increases the greenhouse effect and causes extreme downpours around the world."

The average surface temperature of the seas and oceans beyond the poles (60°S-60°N) in 2024 was 20.87°C, +0.51°C above the climatic norm and above the 2023 record. Monthly temperature records were recorded from April 2023 to June 2024.

Even after the end of the El Niño phase, the oceans continued to be anomalously warm. In December 2024, the water surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region) reached +2°C, despite the ENSO neutral state.

As climate scientist Samantha Burgess emphasises: "The oceans absorb about 90 per cent of the planet's extra heat. This is not just warming - it's a buildup of energy that is transforming ecosystems and weather patterns."

Increased humidity and ocean temperatures will cause massive downpours and flooding in Europe, South Asia and Latin America as early as 2024. Storm Boris in September brought record rainfall to central Europe. North-western Europe saw record storm activity with 12 named storms - the maximum since storm observations began in 2015.

Hurricanes have intensified faster, with Hurricane Helene reaching Category 5 in less than 24 hours, which is attributed to the heating up of the Gulf of Mexico.

The increase in water vapour was accompanied by record increases in CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations. In 2024, carbon dioxide levels reached a 2 million year high and methane levels reached an 800,000 year high. The rate of increase in CO₂ is accelerating, making it increasingly difficult to stabilise the climate.

C3S synchronised its report with NOAA, NASA and the Met Office for the first time - all agencies came to the same conclusion: 2024 is the hottest year in observational history.

The full regional report for Europe (European State of the Climate Report) will be published in April. It will provide extended analyses on floods, heat waves, glaciers and the impact on renewable energy.