Luxembourg is unlikely to fare well at Eurovision

A few weeks before the start of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 in Vienna, ‘The Model’ released its initial predictions, which caused quite a stir among fans. According to the digital forecast, Luxembourg’s representative Eva Marija, with her song ‘Mother Nature’, has an extremely low chance of reaching the final. At present, the Grand Duchy is in the ‘grey zone’: the model predicts that qualification will depend on a handful of points.

The song ‘Mother Nature’ resonates far more with the professional jury than with the general public. It is precisely the low viewer ratings that are dragging the country down in the overall standings. On the eurovisionworld.com portal, the 20-year-old singer ranks 15th out of 35 participating countries, which looks more promising than the mathematical calculation for “The Model”. However, the song was previously suspected of plagiarism due to its similarity to the track ‘Keeping Your Head Up’ by the singer Birdy; all allegations were later officially dropped.

Sweden is currently considered the frontrunner – the performer Felicia, with the song ‘My System’, has scored 407 points, ahead of France and Finland. It is noteworthy that, according to the model, the host country, Austria, could achieve its worst result in history, failing to score a single point with the song “Tanzschein”.

It is worth noting that last year ‘The Model’ made a serious error by predicting a victory for Sweden, whereas Austria emerged as the winner. The algorithm is based on an analysis of historical contest data, bookmakers’ odds and musical criteria, with the forecast updated weekly. Luxembourg will perform in the second semi-final on 14 May as the fifth entry, and the grand final will take place on 16 May.