Highlights of the week 4-10 November

Did Trump break up the Democrats' coalition

Trump has skilfully capitalised on changes within the traditional Democratic Party coalition, attracting young, black, Latino and working class voters who would normally vote for his opponents. This is quite different from the expectations formed after 2008, when many believed that demographic changes would guarantee a Democratic majority for many decades to come. Today's "rising coalition" has been gradually eroded by Trump's messaging and public economic discontent.

Demographics are no longer destiny

Trump expanded his electoral base with 13% of the black vote (up from 4% for John McCain in 2008), 46% of the Hispanic vote (McCain had 31%), and 43% of the under-30 vote. In addition, 56% of voters without a college degree voted for Trump, although it was Obama who won the support of this group in 2008. This success challenged the previously popular "demographics are destiny" slogan among Democrats, which suggested that the racial diversity of the US would work in favour of Democrats.

Trump appealed to voters by pointing out that Democrats, he said, were "out of touch with the mood of the country." By focusing on economic and immigration issues, he was able to build a coalition of black, Latino and working-class voters disillusioned with the Democratic Party. He described his electorate as "truly American," and many voters felt that Trump understood their concerns.

During the campaign, Trump emphasised cultural issues, presenting topics such as sex-change operations for prisoners at taxpayer expense as a demonstration that Democrats are focused on "identity politics" and far from the core issues. In some states, voters, including people like writer Nicole Williams, expressed fatigue with identity politics, saying, "We're just American, and we just want what's best for Americans."

Economy and immigration: key issues

The economy remained the most important issue for voters, followed by immigration. On both fronts, Trump had an advantage. He used dissatisfaction with the level of immigration in the US, which had hit an all-time high under the Biden administration, to attract supporters. Hispanic voters played a particular role, who, as Republican strategist Mike Madrid noted, don't see themselves as a "resentful racial minority" and resent Democrats treating them as a monolith.

The collapse of the Democrat coalition

After the defeat, Democrats began a search for blame and discussions about which path would return them to power. Moderates argue that a focus on identity politics has alienated voters, while progressives insist that fighting for minority rights has always been a core value of the party. Mike Madrid, a Republican political strategist who opposed Trump, described the Democrats' coalition as a "fickle alliance" of working-class minorities and affluent progressive whites. From his perspective, the only thing that kept them together was an anti-Republican stance. After Trump's victory, that glue stopped working, and the coalition fell apart.

In traditionally Democratic counties such as Wayne in Detroit, Harris' support dropped to 63%, down from 68% for Biden in 2020 and 74% for Obama in 2008. Harris needed solid wins in urban areas to offset Trump's success in rural areas, but she failed to garner the necessary number of votes.

By investing heavily in gender identity advertising ($21 million on transgender ads in October), Trump's campaign has shown that cultural messages can be just as effective as economic ones. In counties with traditionally Democratic Latinos, such as Starr in Texas (97 per cent Latino), Trump won 57 per cent of the vote - a sharp increase from McCain's 15 per cent in 2008. Also, the economy proved more important to many voters than race.

This election cycle has shown that Trump's success is no accident: his positions align with the changing priorities of American voters.