There were 6,500 long-term unemployed people, i.e. those registered with ADEM for more than 6 months, in September. Over the past 15 years, this statistic has increased by 2.2 times. Since 2021, however, their number began to decline drastically. Another big jump took place in April 2022. Since then, the number of long-term unemployed has declined faster than the number of people who are simply searching for jobs.
This happens due to changes in labor market patterns. Previously unclaimed professions are now in demand on the market. Although, while the number of long-term unemployed people is still 46% of the total number of people looking for jobs, there is a chance that this will change.
Still, it's worth keeping in mind that each new registration in ADEM has a 16% chance of turning into long-term unemployment. These 16% and 46% numbers should not be mistaken. The first number is about the risk that a new person in ADEM will not be able to find a job in 12 months. The second — is the result of so-called «hoarding», when the number of new long-term unemployed people increases, but does not become fewer.
There are several reasons for this unemployment. Some hypotheses are based on the fact that the skills of a person who has worked in one place for a long time become antiquated. An alternative version is the lack of adjustability or excessively high demands.
The last phenomenon, by the way, correlates with a fresh study of the labor market, about which we wrote about earlier.