Right-wing parties will not change the balance of power in Europe
Christian Lue, Unsplash
This is the conclusion of a recent survey conducted by Ipsos. 26,000 people participated in the survey, which can be considered a unique phenomenon and one of the largest in the run-up to the upcoming elections.
Active growth of radicals and Eurosceptics is recorded in 6 countries, including the founding countries of the EU. In France, Austria and the Benelux countries (except Luxembourg itself), the ID (Identity & Democracy) party dominates according to the polls. In Italy and Latvia — ECR, or Eurosceptics.
Nevertheless, it should be understood that even the growing popularity of right-wing parties does not guarantee them an explosion of representatives in the European Parliament. Yes, it will happen, but it will be rather organic and moderate, mainly due to the loss of several seats by the Greens and the Left. The right-wing parties are expected to gain a total of about 30 seats.
| Страна | Left | Greens/ EFA | S&D | Renew | EPP | ECR | ID | NI | Всего |
| Germany | 5 | 15 | 16 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 15 | 10 | 96 |
| France | 6 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 81 |
| Luxembourg | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Belgium | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 22 |
| Netherlands | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
- Left — The Left;
- Greens/ EFA — Greens/European Free Alliance;
- S&D — Socialists & Democrats;
- Renew — Renew Europe;
- EPP — European People's Party;
- ECR — European Conservatives & Reformists;
- ID — Identity & Democracy;
- NI — Non-attached members.
The situation of the ecoparties is understandable. They are no longer unique, and most other parties in different countries include environmental issues in their platforms in one way or another. Especially when you consider that the EU wants to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030. So the function that the Greens originally performed is now evenly distributed among other representatives, so their presence is not so critical.
The overall balance of power is unlikely to change. The centrist bloc will remain as strong as before, but with a slightly more right-wing bias.
Of course, such predictions are only valid if something unforeseen happens and the right-wing parties dominate the parliament. Then Europe will most likely face tougher migration policies, environmental changes, and other changes.
However, all this will only become clear after the European elections, which will be held on June 6-9. The final vote count will provide answers to all the questions that can only be resolved at the level of speculation and theory.
