Financial earthquake: Trump's duties crash global markets

Donald Trump's policy of protectionism has once again turned out to be a factor of global instability. The U.S. announced prohibitive duties "against the whole world" led to a lightning collapse of stock indices, cryptocurrencies and commodities. Global markets reacted to the news as a first-level geopolitical alert - with an immediate, simultaneous sell-off.

The most dramatic was the opening of trading in Asia. The Chinese index lost 7.1%, which was the deepest failure since the global financial crisis of 2008. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong collapsed by 13 per cent and the Shanghai Composite by 7.79 per cent.

The fall of Taiwan's technology index was particularly painful - minus 9.8%, which was an absolute anti-record. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell by 8% in just the first half hour of trading, while the Topix fell by almost the same amount.

South Korea also did not resist: the KOSPI index collapsed by more than 5%. The Hong Kong stock market ended the day at minus 13.2 per cent - the strongest decline since 1997, i.e. since the Asian financial crisis.

Europe also recorded the deepest drawdowns since the start of the pandemic. On the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, shares of the top 25 companies lost 5.9% already at the start. London's FTSE 100 fell by 5.51%, Germany's DAX - by almost 10% in the first minutes of trading. In Paris, the stock exchange temporarily suspended banking operations after a 6.5 per cent drop, a measure that is only used in the event of a threat of systemic instability.

The cryptocurrency market has not been spared from the fall. Bitcoin, which has long been an indicator of global risk, began to lose value rapidly, and analysts now predict its fall to $65,000.

Commodity markets are also showing alarming dynamics. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index fell by almost 6% over the week, the worst result since 2022. Oil has fallen particularly markedly: Brent fell to $62 per barrel for the first time since April last year, signalling falling demand and a global cooling of expectations.

Despite the violent reaction of the markets, economists have so far refrained from apocalyptic forecasts. According to a number of experts, Donald Trump may use such drastic measures as a tool of pressure in trade negotiations, rather than as a strategy for long-term breaking of global chains. A scenario in which the US bargains for more favourable terms in a number of key agreements is possible.

Nevertheless, uncertainty coupled with aggressive rhetoric causes investors to react almost reflexively: withdrawing capital from risky markets, fleeing to "protective assets" and reducing positions even in previously stable sectors.