Jean-Claude Hollerich has found himself at the centre of the Vatican's attention

"It is terrible that cardinals, bishops and priests are thinking about and working for the conclave while the pope is still alive," Jean-Claude Hollerich, archbishop of Luxembourg, said when Pope Francis was in hospital in February. His words sounded not like a political statement but a gesture of loyalty. Nevertheless, the Luxembourger's name has long been floated behind the scenes at the Vatican as a possible candidate for the See of the Apostle Peter.

He became a cardinal in 2019, actively participated in the synod initiated by Pope Francis to reflect on the future of the Church, and, according to sources, is "very visible in Rome." He is known as a man who speaks five languages, with a wide range of international experience - including in Japan, where he has spent much of his career.

In 2022, Vaticanist Sandro Magister even named him the favourite. However, despite the positive publicity, Hollerich himself denies any interest: "There are men far more qualified than me," he said in an interview with L'essentiel, and later repeated this on RTL.

Moreover, in private conversations he expresses the same idea, emphasising his unpretentiousness, a quality highly valued in the Church's tradition, where the desire for power is perceived more as weakness.

His progressive stance, however, could play against him. The issues on which he has been outspoken - from priestly celibacy and same-sex relationships to engagement with other religions - have already caused tension within the ranks of more conservative cardinals, especially those from Africa, South America and North America. With Francis himself facing isolation in the Curia, electing another reformer may seem too radical a step.

There are more practical arguments against it: health problems and the fact that he will be the second Jesuit on the throne in a row. This has never happened before in the history of the Church.

The very fact that Hollerich comes from Luxembourg, a small and rapidly secularising country, does not play into his hands either. While the pope does not have to come from a major Catholic power, symbolically this could be seen as a weak mandate.

The difficulty is that the College of Cardinals, which comprises 252 hierarchs (137 of them with voting rights), is too colourful and unpredictable. More than 80 per cent of the current membership were appointed by Francis himself, and this could affect the choice of a successor. However, as sources emphasise, the name of the next pope is not decided in Rome alone, and the influence of regional blocs will be tangible.